Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 2020 | 7790 | 38123 | 243 | 57 | 860 | 1641 |
| December 01 2020 | 7854 | 38250 | 245 | 58 | 779 | 1603 |
| December 02 2020 | 7909 | 38383 | 248 | 59 | 727 | 1307 |
| December 03 2020 | 7956 | 38522 | 248 | 59 | 706 | 1178 |
| December 04 2020 | 8039 | 38754 | 250 | 59 | 703 | 1109 |
| December 05 2020 | 8099 | 38881 | 253 | 61 | 620 | 1024 |
| December 06 2020 | 8149 | 39004 | 254 | 62 | 586 | 967 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 3.9 | 5.6% | 33 | 0.29% | 53 | 0.46% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 6.7 | 10.8% | 63 | 0.46% | 110 | 0.81% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 15.9 | 28.2% | 165 | 0.79% | 259 | 1.24% |
| 30-39 | 14 | 10.6 | 18.3% | 107 | 0.79% | 167 | 1.23% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 6.0 | 11.1% | 65 | 0.62% | 112 | 1.07% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 6.9 | 11.6% | 68 | 0.54% | 118 | 0.94% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 4.3 | 8.9% | 52 | 0.45% | 90 | 0.78% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.0 | 5.6% | 33 | 0.32% | 58 | 0.55% |
| All ages | 50 | 56.1 | 100% | 586 | 0.56% | 967 | 0.92% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 2020 | 4666 | 23035 | 132 | 51 | 697 | 1086 |
| December 01 2020 | 4794 | 23095 | 134 | 52 | 619 | 1101 |
| December 02 2020 | 4921 | 23146 | 138 | 53 | 666 | 1124 |
| December 03 2020 | 4990 | 23207 | 139 | 53 | 686 | 1096 |
| December 04 2020 | 5051 | 23328 | 141 | 53 | 675 | 1082 |
| December 05 2020 | 5140 | 23414 | 145 | 55 | 685 | 965 |
| December 06 2020 | 5185 | 23476 | 147 | 55 | 655 | 930 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 10 | 3.7 | 4.6% | 30 | 0.39% | 42 | 0.54% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 9.0 | 10.5% | 69 | 0.82% | 98 | 1.17% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 13.1 | 15.3% | 100 | 1.41% | 140 | 1.97% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 14.9 | 17.6% | 115 | 1.37% | 159 | 1.89% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 15.4 | 17.7% | 116 | 1.5% | 175 | 2.26% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 10.1 | 12.2% | 80 | 0.82% | 117 | 1.21% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 6.4 | 8.4% | 55 | 0.65% | 79 | 0.94% |
| 70+ | 2 | 11.1 | 13.7% | 90 | 1.27% | 120 | 1.69% |
| All ages | 45 | 83.9 | 100% | 655 | 1.01% | 930 | 1.44% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 2020 | 3619 | 15354 | 142 | 41 | 481 | 898 |
| December 01 2020 | 3650 | 15395 | 148 | 41 | 438 | 896 |
| December 02 2020 | 3688 | 15466 | 151 | 41 | 438 | 806 |
| December 03 2020 | 3721 | 15508 | 154 | 41 | 414 | 698 |
| December 04 2020 | 3754 | 15580 | 156 | 42 | 409 | 616 |
| December 05 2020 | 3802 | 15697 | 156 | 40 | 395 | 590 |
| December 06 2020 | 3844 | 15737 | 156 | 47 | 379 | 594 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 4 | 2.1 | 5.8% | 22 | 0.41% | 33 | 0.61% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 3.7 | 9.2% | 35 | 0.64% | 48 | 0.88% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 5.0 | 12.7% | 48 | 1.06% | 77 | 1.7% |
| 30-39 | 9 | 5.9 | 14.8% | 56 | 1.03% | 86 | 1.58% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 5.1 | 13.2% | 50 | 1% | 78 | 1.57% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 5.0 | 12.7% | 48 | 0.71% | 89 | 1.31% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 5.0 | 13.7% | 52 | 0.82% | 76 | 1.2% |
| 70+ | 4 | 5.9 | 17.9% | 68 | 1.07% | 107 | 1.69% |
| All ages | 42 | 37.7 | 100% | 379 | 0.84% | 594 | 1.31% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 2020 | 8087 | 40669 | 162 | 35 | 1006 | 1638 |
| December 01 2020 | 8126 | 40839 | 170 | 36 | 839 | 1485 |
| December 02 2020 | 8209 | 40943 | 173 | 37 | 869 | 1364 |
| December 03 2020 | 8400 | 41172 | 180 | 38 | 999 | 1481 |
| December 04 2020 | 8556 | 41411 | 180 | 39 | 1056 | 1475 |
| December 05 2020 | 8641 | 41604 | 181 | 39 | 990 | 1354 |
| December 06 2020 | 8677 | 41807 | 182 | 40 | 916 | 1337 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 4.4 | 4% | 37 | 0.31% | 57 | 0.48% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 12.1 | 12.2% | 112 | 0.68% | 154 | 0.93% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 19.0 | 19.1% | 175 | 0.82% | 266 | 1.25% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 16.3 | 16.8% | 154 | 1.13% | 215 | 1.58% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 11.6 | 12.3% | 113 | 0.83% | 167 | 1.23% |
| 50-59 | 3 | 13.0 | 14.2% | 130 | 0.92% | 183 | 1.29% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 9.4 | 10.6% | 97 | 0.68% | 147 | 1.04% |
| 70+ | 3 | 9.3 | 10.7% | 98 | 0.75% | 148 | 1.14% |
| All ages | 36 | 95.1 | 100% | 916 | 0.77% | 1337 | 1.13% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 2020 | 27489 | 275850 | 785 | 80 | 3172 | 5266 |
| December 01 2020 | 27600 | 276005 | 794 | 81 | 2946 | 4670 |
| December 02 2020 | 27830 | 276346 | 811 | 102 | 2964 | 4356 |
| December 03 2020 | 28226 | 277243 | 823 | 102 | 3220 | 4357 |
| December 04 2020 | 28610 | 278095 | 837 | 102 | 2855 | 4293 |
| December 05 2020 | 28947 | 278814 | 845 | 104 | 2957 | 4293 |
| December 06 2020 | 29053 | 279749 | 850 | 104 | 2686 | 4187 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 10.7 | 4.7% | 126 | 0.21% | 210 | 0.35% |
| 10-19 | 17 | 32.3 | 13% | 350 | 0.49% | 597 | 0.84% |
| 20-29 | 30 | 55.1 | 21.3% | 571 | 0.55% | 904 | 0.87% |
| 30-39 | 12 | 45.6 | 17% | 457 | 0.6% | 714 | 0.93% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 39.0 | 15.1% | 405 | 0.62% | 623 | 0.95% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 33.6 | 12.3% | 330 | 0.5% | 486 | 0.74% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 20.4 | 7.7% | 207 | 0.38% | 333 | 0.61% |
| 70+ | 8 | 22.9 | 8.9% | 240 | 0.49% | 320 | 0.65% |
| All ages | 106 | 259.6 | 100% | 2686 | 0.49% | 4187 | 0.77% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 2020 | 387235 | 2149996 | 17095 | 3313 | 42290 | 70477 |
| December 01 2020 | 391313 | 2156410 | 17372 | 3420 | 40144 | 67465 |
| December 02 2020 | 395090 | 2162616 | 17569 | 3502 | 40414 | 63253 |
| December 03 2020 | 399708 | 2169970 | 17741 | 3562 | 41937 | 61236 |
| December 04 2020 | 404555 | 2180320 | 17943 | 3625 | 40582 | 59610 |
| December 05 2020 | 409386 | 2188949 | 18126 | 3702 | 39944 | 58217 |
| December 06 2020 | 412177 | 2196722 | 18216 | 3719 | 37640 | 57501 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 159 | 167.6 | 4.5% | 1681 | 0.26% | 2548 | 0.4% |
| 10-19 | 294 | 427.1 | 11.1% | 4193 | 0.55% | 6345 | 0.84% |
| 20-29 | 480 | 658.0 | 16.7% | 6303 | 0.83% | 9766 | 1.29% |
| 30-39 | 431 | 644.7 | 16% | 6039 | 0.8% | 9105 | 1.2% |
| 40-49 | 383 | 570.1 | 14.5% | 5452 | 0.78% | 8334 | 1.19% |
| 50-59 | 380 | 607.1 | 15.1% | 5682 | 0.7% | 8659 | 1.06% |
| 60-69 | 343 | 444.1 | 11.4% | 4273 | 0.56% | 6511 | 0.86% |
| 70+ | 321 | 406.3 | 10.7% | 4017 | 0.63% | 6233 | 0.97% |
| All ages | 2791 | 3925.1 | 100% | 37640 | 0.65% | 57501 | 0.99% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92.4 | 80.9 | 123.8 | 56.1 | 125.3 | 27.5% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 143.8 | 83.9 | 94 | 53.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 131.3 | 37.7 | 75 | 35.7% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 113.1 | 93 | 125 | 95.1 | 115.1 | 34.6% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76.6 | 84 | 87 | 259.6 | 359.4 | 28.3% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 98.8 | 83.8 | 129 | 3925.1 | 5372.1 | 34.2% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 4 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.52 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-12-27 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 3433"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges